January 29, 2007
By Neil Fraser
LET me state up front that I am an ardent 2010 supporter. I have seen what such major events can do for a city and I say, bring 'em on.
I think it will be a great event for South Africa and for Jozi. The benefits to the metropole will be in realising both new and enhanced infrastructure and the fact that the event will act as a catalyst to get new projects implemented - plus those that have been languishing on the drawing board for years.
I must admit, however, to experiencing growing concerns regarding our tardiness in preparing for the event, leaving a relatively short period to do a mountain of work and, lately, on the reported cost overruns for many of the stadiums.
For example, Business Day newspaper of 24 January trumpeted, "Cities warn of rocketing costs of 2010 stadiums". The body of the story states that, "It emerged in public hearings of parliament's sport and recreation committee yesterday that most of the host cities were experiencing shortfalls due to expenditure estimates that had grown because of inflation, the exchange rate and rising input costs." (My emphasis)
I don't buy that - when the estimates were prepared they must have known that the projects would not start before the beginning of this year and the end date was certainly known - any estimator worth his or her salt would have made a reasonable provision for all these aspects. We have lived in an inflationary environment for years – we have known that the stadiums were going to be built in a time of extreme shortages and an overheated construction industry – all such issues could and should have been provided for.
While fluctuating exchange rates are impossible to foresee, the proportion of imported materials surely is not that great.
According to the report, Cape Town had budgeted on R2,5-billion but the preferred bidder "had placed the cost at R3,7-billion". Durban is facing a funding gap of R600-million, Nelson Mandela of R262-million and Polokwane of R300-million – and the contracts have not started yet.
We, of course, have chosen to forget that the total originally budgeted for all stadiums, new and upgraded, on which we won the bid, was only R2-billion. Now - before construction starts - it's R9-billion, which looks as though it is far short of what the eventual costs will be.
Admittedly, the real long-term benefit to the country will be that soccer facilities, historically sub-par as a result of apartheid and always the poor relation to other sports, will now be as good as anything the rest of the world has to offer. However, I wonder who has done the maintenance sums. We always seem to find it easier to splurge capital than to make allowance for adequate ongoing upkeep.
Optimism, realism or hope
But back to Jozi - this past week the executive mayor is reported to have announced that the refurbishment of the impressive calabash-shell design of the FNB Stadium, "would be completed seven months ahead of schedule". Is this optimism, realism or hope?
Evidently the contract was due to have been completed by October 2009 and now it will be finished by "18 March" - precise time estimation that. With the contract officially expected to begin on 1 February, it means that the contract period will be 25-and-a-half months. The contract price of R1,5-billion calls for an average monthly turnover of R60-million.
That is extraordinary! That is astonishing! That is unbelievable! That's about R85 000 an hour to be spent every hour of a 24-hour day and every day of a 30-day month for two-and-a-bit years. Whew! One can only assume that the structural steel framework to be built around the stadium, its "calabash" covering and the roof construction and covering are all extremely quick to erect yet incredibly expensive.
The R9-billion allocated for stadiums will mean a monthly turnover of more than R300 million to be completed by 2009 - at the same time billions of rands of expenditure will be poured into transportation and other infrastructure. And none of this takes into account the construction costs of Gautrain. It looks like a good time to buy construction sector shares.
I wasn't able to find out the original contract price of the FNB Stadium, but Ellis Park, built in 1981-2 cost R53-million. Allowing for inflation, using Statistics SA figures, that R53-million would be about R650-million at today's costs. With 60 000 seats, the cost per seat would be about R11 000. The 24 000 extra seats at Soccer City will cost about R63 000 each.
I know that I have done a simplistic calculation, if one adjusts for the external cladding and roof, the cost per seat will be substantially reduced, but I doubt by six times.
Cape Town's 68 000 seats will cost a whopping R3,7-billion but "only" R55 000 a seat. Durban's fancy King Senzangakhona Stadium will provide 70 000 seats; the original estimate was R1,6-billion but it is now looking to be R2,2-billion, which will mean about R32 000 per seat.
British comparison
I looked at some reasonably recently built stadiums in Britain for comparison purposes. It would have been more pertinent to examine those built in Germany for last year's Fifa World Cup but I couldn't find the data.
The Millennium Stadium in Cardiff cost R1,8-billion in 1999 - that would be R2,5-billion today based on our inflation figures. With 74 500 seats that equates to R35 000 a seat, including the cost of an elaborate sliding roof. Max Boyce, the Welsh comedian and rugby aficionado, explains the reason for the sliding roof:
"They say it has a sliding roof,
That they can slide all day.
We'll slide it back when Wales attack,
So God can watch us play!"
Wembley Stadium, billed as the most expensive stadium ever built and as yet unfinished, was a fixed-price contract of £757-million (about R10,9-billion), which equates to a cost of nearly R120 000 a seat. They broke ground in 2002 and it was due for completion in autumn 2005 - then the end of January 2006, then March 2006 and now the gates will open for the first event on 3 March 2007. Clearly the Brits need South African contractors rather than the Australian company, Multiplex, to whom they awarded the contract.
Inner city
From an inner city point of view, this is probably quite academic - Soccer City is of no direct benefit to us. So where will the inner city really benefit and where are we in regard to progress?
According to media reports, "some of the legacy projects include the replacement of public utilities such as outdoor refuse bins, benches, vendor stalls, play areas, pathways and ablution facilities". It's not clear from the report if this would be throughout the inner city or specifically focused on the precincts around Soccer City and Ellis Park.
In regard to Ellis Park, most of these items were newly installed for the All-Africa Games held in September 1999. Since then, zero maintenance (which we clearly prefer to zero tolerance) has resulted in all these amenities being almost totally destroyed - again I hope someone out there isn't just allowing capital budgets to be formulated without an adequate management and maintenance allowance this time around.
Apart from work that has been in progress for some time at Nasrec around Soccer City, physical work on the Ellis Park precinct has already started through contracts awarded late last year for the creation of a "gateway" into the precinct at the intersection of Charlton Terrace and Stiemert Road and another for the upgrading of both Stiemert Road and Sivewright Avenue. So those aspects appear to be well ahead of programme.
The Star newspaper reported on Thursday, 25 January, on the sparkling mosaic work that is under way on the columns supporting the overhead highway in Saratoga Avenue near Ellis Park. Overhead highways are always oppressive for those who pass below them and, with this being one of the gateways to Ellis Park, what a great idea it is to use artwork to lighten up the scene.
A huge amount of investigation has been done regarding upgrading the greater Ellis Park area, particularly related to the problem of slum conditions in places like Bertrams and Doornfontein, but no definitive direction or approach has yet emerged.
To me, the real benefit for the inner city will flow from the proposed public transportation initiative. I included an overview of what is planned two weeks ago in Citichat 2. Briefly, it will comprise the introduction of a R2-billon integrated Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system providing:
Exclusive right-of-way lanes;
Rapid boarding and alighting;
Pre-board fare collection and fare verification;
Enclosed stations that are safe and comfortable;
Clear route maps;
Signage and information displays;
Automatic vehicle location technology;
Modal integration at stations and terminals; and
Bus operators contracted to provide the services.
Integrated into the BRT will be the Inner City Distribution System, which will provide a cheap fare for an interlinked series of routes that will take one from the Ellis Park precinct to Newtown as well as along north-south connections. In addition, an international Transit and Shopping Centre is being planned for the Park Station Precinct that will provide all the necessary connections between the Gautrain Station, Park Station, Metro Mall, Jack Mincer and Noord Street Long Distance Taxi Ranking.
Already approved by the council, construction is due to start in the latter part of this year - the buses are planned to be in service before April 2009, providing a year of testing and bedding down before the first ball is kicked off. That timetable looks extremely tight to me.
Checks and balances
If I were the mayor, I would employ the best project management consulting company in the world to check every 2010 construction programme and resource projection for every project and have it report progress to me on a daily basis. Rather like New York's Rudi Guilliani who had daily crime incidents reported to him during his crime zero-tolerance programme. Mmm, maybe that's not a bad idea either.
But to end on a light note: the SA Info website records the most frequently asked questions regarding 2010:
Where is South Africa?
What's the beer like?
Are there lions in the streets?
Should be great fun, Cheers, Neil
PS: Take note of the first February Walking Tour by the Parktown and Westcliff Heritage Trust:
Saturday, 3 February: Villa Arcadia, House and Garden
This is a visit to the 1909 home of Lionel and Florence Phillips. Meet at the Hollard offices, entrance on Federation Road, Parktown at 2pm. The tour takes about two-and-a-half hours and costs R65 for members R85 for non-members This includes tea.
Book at Computicket on 011 340 8000.
Permission to use web site material
Publishers may use material from this site free of charge, as long as:
- Credit is given to either the "City of Johannesburg website
(www.joburg.org.za)" or to "Johannesburg News Agency
(www.joburg.org.za)";
- If the article is used online, a link is provided to the original
article on this website;
- The name of the article's author is acknowledged;
-
The webmaster is informed of how and where the material is used (fill
in this brief online form).
Johannesburg News Agency is operated by BIG Media at 011-484-1400 |
