Neil Fraser

RELATED LINKS: About Citichat Neil Fraser is a partner in Neil Fraser & Associates, trading as Urban Inc, an urban consultancy dedicated to the revitalisation and regeneration of cities and of the inner city of Johannesburg in particular. He can be contacted on 083 456 0242 or 011 444 4895 or by e-mail at neil@urbaninc.co.za.Views and opinions expressed in Citichat are not necessarily those of Urban Inc. Citichat is a free weekly publication concerning cities generally and Johannesburg specifically. Please forward Citichat to your colleagues who may wish to be placed on the subscription list. To subscribe please contact us at info@urbaninc.co.za Neil Fraser - passionate city man HE'S got a full white beard and moustache to match his white hair, he smiles often, and he's passionate about cities, particularly Johannesburg . . . he's Neil Fraser, executive director of the Central Johannesburg Partnership, an inner city renewal initiative. Read more More opt for inner city living STRONG, steady demand for inner city flats is leading to a surge in rents, and there is no end in sight, according to the annual Trafalgar Report. Read more Demand for inner city living on rise THE inner city is gentrifying, as more and more people choose to live among the skyscrapers. Read more Joburg celebrates inner city renewal JOZI had a party to celebrate R1,1-billion worth of improvements to buildings in its central business district. The area is again becoming a desirable place to live and work. Read more New square focus of Gauteng precinct GAUTENG has finalised plans for its proposed new precinct in Johannesburg's CBD, centred on a new square to be created alongside the Beyers Naude Square. Read more Appeal hearing on Gauteng precinct THE fate of the historic buildings earmarked for demolition to make way for a modern government precinct hangs in the balance after appeals were made last week. Neil Fraser reports on the appeal hearing. Read more

Joburg's recovery in figures Neil Fraser looks at the facts and figures that support his optimism over the future of Johannesburg's inner city. 14 August 2006 By Neil Fraser Based on statistics, claims can be made that the inner city is showing a positive upswing and progress has been made in reversing the city's fortunes. In a statement about establishing the Gauteng precinct, Premier Mbhazima Shilowa, on 17 November 2003, said: "The establishment of the precinct is an indication of our confidence in the future of the city and our efforts, together with the City of Johannesburg and other stakeholders, including the private sector, to revive the city and turn it into a world-class African city. "We believe the initiative will send an unequivocal message that, as government, we are here to stay. Our status will change from being just tenants in rented property into one of the biggest property owners in the central business district. There are already indications that others will follow suit and that the development will have a positive impact on the property market in the city. Together with the Legislature precinct and the High Court and Magistrate's Court precincts, we are confident that we will restore the Johannesburg CBD's status as the preferred location for business." (The underlining has been added.) While I have no quarrel with the fact that the Provincial Government Precinct will be a positive factor in the regeneration process and that it will have a positive impact on the property market in the city, I cannot agree with the premier's perception that the revival of the city is dependant on the establishment of the precinct, nor that it will restore the CBD's status as the preferred location for business. Clearly the CBD will be the preferred location for certain businesses. However, I don't believe that the CBD should consider itself in competition with Sandton, or any of the other economic nodes that have developed over the past decade or two. Nor do I believe that the major corporations that have relocated and invested heavily in other areas will return. What I do think is that we need to ensure that the CBD is normalised to the extent that it features automatically in anyone's locational decision-making - that when they look at, for example Sandton or Midrand, they also look at the CBD. Or when those that have left and settled elsewhere require additional space they too consider the CBD as an option. For that to happen, there still is a lot of work to be done. An upswing in the CBD On the issue of the recovery of the CBD, available statistics reflect the upswing that was achieved towards the end of 2005 and which I believe still reflect the current situation. Based on the statistics I believe we can claim: that the city is well into a positive upswing; that considerable progress has already been made in the reversal of the city's fortunes; and that the private sector has already played a major role in the regeneration of the city. An overview of the statistics Property transfers recorded in the city (source Property SPI) 1997      39 1998      20 1999      66 2000      149 2001      201 2002      261 2003      186 2004      196 2005      344 From these figures it is clear that the upswing commenced in 2000 and has accelerated constantly from that time. Figures prior to 1997 are not available. Value of property transactions in the city centre A comparative analysis of the value of property transactions that took place in 1998 compared with 2005 shows the extent to which property investment has increased in the city: 1998       R22 980 000 2005       R351 270 300 Sectional title (flats) transactions in the city centre The past few years have seen a large movement in the purchase of sectional title flat units in the city centre, as is apparent from this comparison. 1998 = 0 2005 = 250 Occupation of office space in the city (source SAPOA) The figures are office vacancy statistics for A grade space and A + B grade space as recorded in February (1994 to 1999) or March (2000 to 2005) of each year:                A          A + B 1994      11.9      15.5 1995      15.4      17.3 1996      13.8      15.0 1997      15.1      16.1 1998      19.9      20.7 1999      25.7      24.5 2000      23.3       23.1 2001      23.6      23.6 2002      22.5      25.4 2003      20.2      24.4 2004      15.9      21.8 2005      13.8      22.6 A-grade space vacancies peaked in 1999 and started improving from 2000. A plus B grade space peaked in 2002 and started improving in 2003. Median asking rentals for A grade office space in the city (source SAPOA, figures in March each year) 1999           28.50 2000           28.00 2001           26.50 2002           25.25 2003           27.00 2004           28.25 2005 March 30.50 2005 Sept   34.00 There has been an upturn in median asking rentals of 35 percent between 2002 and 2005. The future of the inner city From time to time I'm asked, by international journalists in particular, what my opinion is regarding the future of the inner city. It remains optimistic, not based just on gut feel, but on the city's performance over these past few years. That there are still many weaknesses to be overcome and initiatives to be implemented is for sure, but we are well on the way and 2010 can only be a major further fillip in the CBD's fortunes. A carefully considered Provincial Government Precinct will undoubtedly add further value, just as a poorly considered one won't maximise the CBD's potential. Have a good week, Regards, Neil Permission to use web site material Publishers may use material from this site free of charge, as long as: Credit is given to either the "City of Johannesburg website (www.joburg.org.za)" or to "Johannesburg News Agency (www.joburg.org.za)"; If the article is used online, a link is provided to the original article on this website; The name of the article's author is acknowledged; The webmaster is informed of how and where the material is used (fill in this brief online form). Johannesburg News Agency is operated by BIG Media at 011-484-1400 Print this Page E-mail this article to a friend Help using Joburg.org.za