Neil Fraser
July 25, 2003
I'M sure that one of the indicators that show that cities are serious about improvement is the ready availability of dependable indicators themselves.
If you live close to a situation over a long period of time you develop 'gut feelings' that things are getting better or getting worse but the same 'gut feelings' are not necessarily shared by everyone for they are largely crafted by individual experience.
So there is nothing like hard fact, actual outcomes, to substantiate progress or the lack thereof. Extravagant claims that are not based on fact lead to cynicism. Cynicism also results when organisations only make indicators available when it suits them or restrict themselves to only publishing the positives.
Indicators, used properly and honestly, reflect a maturity - I guess it's why we hear so much of the gospel of "transparency" yet see so little of that commodity in practice. For me the most important issue is that indicators must be more than merely of academic interest, they must be tools in the process we are engaged in.
So the latest publication by the Johannesburg Development Agency (JDA) of indicators against which the performance of the inner city can be judged over the past two years is both important and welcome. The report "Progress in the City" was released at the impressive JDA stakeholder's meeting by CEO Graeme Reid last week.
The performance indicators were developed in 2001 as a base off which to measure the impact of the city's regeneration plan and the combined efforts of the public and private sectors in striving to achieve the plan. In 2002 they were further refined and targets were set. Now in 2003 we are able to examine the first results. They are incidentally prepared independently by Professor John Luiz of the School of Economic and Business Science, University of the Witwatersrand.
Whilst the report consistently reflects improvements across all of the performance indicators, at this stage improvement obviously still comes off a low base and confirms areas of continuing weakness. It is how we are going to deal with these weaknesses that is critical.
There are six indicators, the first four reflecting changes in key economic statistics and, the balance, changes in perceptions by city-users.
The first indicator focuses on the development towards a 24 Hour City - (a more relevant terminology is becoming popular - a "24/7 City"). This is measured by attendance at various inner city entertainment venues, sports, theatres, museums, etc. The target is an increase in attendance by 5% per annum. Between 2002 and 2003 attendance actually increased by 11.7% with total attendance in 2003 at 954 344.
Overall, a big slump in attendance occurred between 1997 and 2000, in fact we're still 11% below 1997, but this has been steadily improving since 2000 and some of the specific figures show quite remarkable growth. The Standard Bank Art Gallery from 11,765 in 1997 to 30,814 in 2002; Civic Theatre 162 928 to 259 239.
Whilst the increase of 11.7% overall is gratifying and, as reflected above, in some specific cases quite remarkable, the total attendance figure at under one million is, in my opinion, extremely low.
It is also difficult to measure the impact of the investment and work done in Newtown as only three venues in that area are used in compiling the statistics, Museum Africa, SAB World of Beer and Market Theatre.
Hopefully we have figures for the various events that have taken place at the revamped Mary Fitzgerald Square since it was opened eighteen months ago and it will be important to see what improvement will result there, as well as at the three measured venues, from the improved access via the Nelson Mandela Bridge and on-and-off ramps.
Bernard Jay, CEO of the Civic Theatre always emphasises how 'quality offered' is the most important determinant for attendance, an issue that is clearly borne out by his own results and certainly those of the Standard Bank Art Gallery, the venue of some outstanding exhibitions over these past two years.
Later in the survey it was found that a high percentage of people surveyed, 90% in fact, believe that events to attract people to the area are needed. We need to clearly look at actively developing a 'quality' programme of events for the inner city, particularly for places such as Newtown, that cater to a wide range of tastes.
The second indicator focuses on the Property Market. Here the two main measures are building activity in terms of 'plans approved' and 'work completed' as well as 'vacancy rates'.
Building activity escalated dramatically in the inner city in 2002 - a 500% increase overall over the two previous years. The private sector itself reflected an increase of just over 200%. The actual figures for the private sector were R19.6 million in 2000; R18.9 million in 2001 and R57.1 million in 2002. This shows a very important trend because the rate of public sector investment we are enjoying is not sustainable in the medium to long term.
Vacancy rates for A and B grade space appear to have stabilized in the CBD at about 24% and Braamfontein at 12%. Stabilization is an important aspect given the oversupply of office space generally in the northern nodes.
The latest JHI Property Report adds some extremely telling facts (i) that leasing activity in the CBD has been fairly strong over the past year with government and empowerment/emerging companies finally beginning to drive demand albeit for smaller spaces (ii) that brokerage activities report that at least 60% of new leases are signed by emerging black business - both of these are consistent with my own experience.
The third indicator is rentals. A target was actually set that A grade median rentals should stabilize by December 2003 using a base set at December 2001. During 2002 median rentals increased from R25.25 to R 27.00 per m2 in the CBD but dropped in Braamfontein from R45 to R44. Taken together they indicate a stable trend overall. The CBD rentals remain well below those of the northern nodes so there remains a great deal of rental growth but this won't happen until the A and B grade vacancies in the city decrease considerably.
The fourth Key Economic indicator is Business Activity in impact areas. The goal is of course to see this progressively increase. Business activity is measured from Regional Services Council (RSC) levies which are based on business turnover and salary expenditure. This provides an indication of trends as regards business activity and employment levels. 2002 reflects a decrease in turnover of 2.4% in comparison to 2001 but an increase in salaries of 4.7%. The research suggests that this provides a fairly stable trend as the statistics are not too reliable.
The next two indicators relate to perceptions and are compiled from an inner city survey conducted during February and March this year. The first of these, indicator 5, relates to Confidence in the inner city.
A "confidence index" has been developed that provides a score of between 1 - low - and 100 - high - based on respondents positions on certain questions. The overall inner city index score for 2003 is 46.2 up from 44.8 in 2002, an increase of 3.1%. Interestingly, all of the sub-indices on which the overall confidence index is based are up with those relating to the future of the Inner City scoring the highest which reflects a growing optimism
Responses to questions posed in the Survey relative to Business Confidence as reflected by indices for this year (first figure) compared to last year (second figure) show a positive upwards trend:
- Improvement in management of the inner city, 53 - 44.1
- Improvement in the cleanliness of the inner city, 49.6 - 41.1
- Improvement in the orderliness of the inner city, 45.4 - 40
- Decline in crime rate, no change from last year, both 44
- Resolve to remain in the inner city, 50.4 - 47
- More positive/optimistic about the inner city, 54.8 - 47
- My business turnover rose, 41.4 - 40
- My employment levels have risen, 41 - 31
- Anticipate increase in employment levels, 56 - 46
- Optimistic that the inner city will improve over the coming year, 59.5 - 56
A look at perceptions of City Life reveals that:
- impressions are improving, only 17.6% described street life in the inner city as "dull or non-existent" compared with 40% in 2002.
- the city's image is changing - in 2002 some 80% characterized the inner city as "dirty and unsafe" in 2003 this had dropped to 36%.
- 50% were of the opinion that there was not enough entertainment available
- 69% want more retail and entertainment to be open at night
- in regard to events almost 90% said that it would be useful to have public events that attract people to the area.
- 27.2% want to see a well managed and promoted area; 22.4% a world class African city; 20% a tourist attraction; 16% an attractive environment, aesthetically pleasing and 10% a 24 hour city with active street life.
In relation to Economic Conditions:
- The single attribute of the Inner City that has the most positive effect on their business drew a number of responses including transport hub; convenience of public transport; easy highway access; variety of shopping; increased security relative to CIDs and the significant foot traffic.
- As regards the most negative effect on their business the answers were crime and grime; unmanaged informal traders; uncontrolled taxis and deteriorating building conditions.
- What would add most to the economic value drew greater security presence; upgrading of existing buildings; cleaner public environment and promotion and marketing.
In relation to Safety and Security:
- 59% do not feel safe outdoors but feel quite safe in CID areas
- 43% felt that current policing initiatives were improving
- 54% felt that security in the Inner City is better than the rest of he metro
These are some of the perceptions regarding Public Environment, Appearance, Informal trading and Transportation:
Public Environment:
- Public environment is poor
- Not enough green space or natural elements
- Not enough public facilities
Appearance:
- 38.4% assert that street lighting is inadequate
- 64% state that litter on the pavements is a problem
- 53.6% maintain that illegal posters are a problem
- 76.8% believe that refuse removal has improved
- More than half stated that the overall cleanliness of he Inner City was better than the rest of the Metro
Informal Trading:
- 68% support informal trading but
- over 77% felt that the relocation of informal trading to designated areas will have a positive impact
Transportation:
- 72% feel that parking is a problem
- 82.4% believe that relocating taxis to formal ranks will have a positive impact on the city
- 48.2% viewed public transport positively
- 100% support for the view that road signage is better than the rest of the Metro
Most positive and negative developments
Respondents were asked to rate the most positive and negative developments in the inner city in the past year and to identify issues that they believe need urgent attention
The most positive developments in the inner city were CCTV surveillance, Newtown Precinct including Nelson Mandela Bridge and Metro Mall; Gandhi Square; City Improvement Districts (CIDs) and the general effort being put into ensuring a better physical environment
Most negative - too many hawkers; crime; taxi loading and parking areas; empty buildings and shops often with illegal residents; closure of some chain stores and banks.
Issues needing most urgent attention - crime; management of hawkers and taxis; improving buildings and shopfronts; demolish rundown buildings and convert them into parks but manage illegal residents; grime; attracting big business back; beautify inner city.
City Improvement Districts (CIDs)
Across the board there has been a very real improvement in the public perception of the city's City Improvement Districts
- Almost 75% were aware of the CIDs up from 50% in 2002.
- 70% believe that the CIDs are making a real positive difference
- 70% feel safer in the CIDs compared with the rest of the inner city, up from 52% in 2002
- 72% believe the public environment is better maintained in the CIDs compared with 56% in 2002.
The Report comments that "Overall it would appear that the CIDs are regarded as having made a very positive impact on the Inner City and are achieving their aims. Almost everyone expressed a desire to have the CIDs operate in the Inner City as a whole."
The final indicator, Indicator 6 relates to the awareness and satisfaction with JDA.
Public awareness of the JDA has improved dramatically - the number of respondents who had heard of he JDA was double that of the previous year and 84% were aware of the planned initiatives and developments up from 34% in 2002. Service satisfaction had increased from 57% in 2002 to 61.5% now.
All in all, a satisfactory report card but which also highlights the huge amount that still needs to be done. Clearly people mostly want a well-managed, world-class city which capitalises on its Africanness and they are recognising moves in that direction. Clearly too, we need to focus more sharply on crime, informal trading, taxi management, illegal occupations and removing bad buildings that blight the cityscape.
Citidiary - past week highlights
Sunday - Nearly 10 000 people were drawn to the city to see Madiba himself open the bridge that bears his name on Sunday morning or to take part in the first ever Joburg Road Race that followed. Paul Arnott-Job from the JDA tells me that the bridge 'dropped' 150 mms when the four thousand runners crowded it at the start - relax, it was designed for! What a difference a bridge makes - access to and egress from Newtown is now a pleasure.
Thursday - The official launch of the new Inner City Office hosted by the Regional Director of Region 8 (which encompasses the Inner City), Yakoob Makda and the regional Manager for Inner City regeneration, Martin New.
