October 13, 2004
By Lucille Davie
THIS morning the roads were rivers of rain, motorists were skirting puddles, and pedestrians huddled beneath umbrellas but, despite this, there's no reason to suspect that the rainy season has begun, says the South African Weather Service.
On the contrary, we can expect above average temperatures and below normal rainfall over the following months. And what's worse, there's a 60 percent chance of "weak to moderate" El Niño conditions towards the end of the year and the beginning of next year.
El Niño refers to an irregular and complex series of climatic changes affecting in particular the equatorial Pacific region every few years, characterised by warmer than usual sea surface temperatures which in turn affect the atmosphere. These changes are then carried around the globe by the wind.
For South Africa as a whole this means that conditions will be drier and warmer in December, January and February. For Joburg this means that in these months, usually our wettest, we'll experience temperatures edging into the 30s, four or five degrees warmer than normal.
Rain fell on Monday night and continued overnight and into Tuesday and Wednesday, giving hope to Joburg gardeners watching their parched gardens with dismay. In September, where normally we get 27mm of rain, Joburg only received 0,5mm of rain. The average for October is 76mm but it's unlikely we'll reach that as, from Thursday, although there might be clouds up there, says the Weather Service, don't expect rain. Partly cloudy conditions will persist into next week, with no rain.
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